Investment Plummeted 7.6% in the First Half of the Year with No Clear Signs of Recovery by Year-End

Investment recorded its eighth consecutive year-on-year decline in June, plummeting 7.6% in the first half of the year compared to the same period in 2025. Experts do not foresee clear signs of sustained recovery in the second half of the year and warn that the Regime of Incentives for Large Investments (RIGI) and the Super RIGI are insufficient for any potential rebound to spread throughout the economy.

The mentioned data comes from the usual estimate by Orlando Ferreres & Associates. The Monthly Gross Internal Investment Index (IBIM) from the consultancy was 6.2% lower than a year ago, and on a monthly basis, the benchmark contracted by 0.4%, maintaining a "sawtooth" dynamic, alternating between upward rebounds and retreats.

Regarding June 2025, the worst figures were observed in the durable production equipment segment. In national products, the decline was 9.5%, while imported goods marked a "red" of 12.7%.

The exception came from investment in construction, which showed a slight improvement of 0.4% compared to June 2025.

"As we average the current year, investment continues to operate at very low levels, and there are still no clear signs that invite thoughts of recovery, although certain specific sectors showed better numbers in the sixth month of the year. Indeed, construction managed to return to positive territory, and we also saw slight increases in the data for heavy commercial vehicle registrations," Ferreres stated in his report released this Wednesday.

The seasonally adjusted series from the consultancy showed that June's investment was the third lowest since October 2024, only surpassing that of April this year and November of last year. Looking ahead, although the entity does not foresee a scenario that allows for projecting a sustained rebound, it expects that "the contraction of investment will continue to decelerate." "The factor that could change this slow evolution is the investments announced under the umbrella of RIGI, but the timelines and schedules for these investments are flexible, subject to some discretion," the report concluded.

The numbers reflect that investment is far from being one of the engines of economic activity at present, as the government’s conceptual framework proclaims. On the contrary, improvements in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) have been driven by exports and private consumption, although this does not mean that the living conditions of most Argentines have improved; rather, it responds more to methodological issues regarding how INDEC measures this variable, as explained by Ámbito in this note.

According to the latest official data, investment fell 11% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026 and accumulated its fourth consecutive decline, in seasonally adjusted terms. Additionally, the organization Fundar added that investment represented only 14.3% of GDP, a "historic low" and "far from the 25% needed".

For Misión Productiva, a network of professionals with experience in the private sector and the state, the negative dynamics of investment can be explained by five reasons: the weakness of demand and wage mass, the paralysis of public works, the poor performance of private construction, the lack of credit and supportive investment policies, and the uncertainty regarding the future sustainability of the economic scheme. "Current growth, primarily supported by agriculture, mining, and energy, is not enough to generate a broad investment process across the economy, which jeopardizes the country's sustained growth," they elaborated.

Given these concerning numbers, per capita investment was 21.8% below the record set in 2018, prior to the currency crisis that marked the beginning of the end of Mauricio Macri's government. "Buying a machine is betting on the future. Fewer and fewer companies are doing it," Fundar warned.

Regarding the contribution that RIGI and Super RIGI can make, the entity stated that the program is a response to a "real problem", such as the low level of investment that the country attracted towards 2023, but it is "poorly resolved". In this sense, they pointed out "two serious problems": the "mega-excessive benefits to sectors that did not need them because they were already investing," such as mining and energy, and the lack of a strategy aimed at generating linkages between the most dynamic sectors and other activities that can be suppliers.

In this regard, Fundar researcher and member of the Center for State and Society Studies (CEDES), Emiliano Libman, told this media outlet that the sectors concentrating RIGI projects represent "a very small fraction of investment to drag the total". "It may help stop the decline in investment, but I do not expect a rebound in the short term," he added.

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