Iran-USA: Oil Soars, Bitcoin and Futures Remain Calm

A scalded cat fears cold water. Iran and the United States fell back into military escalation on the night of July 29 to 30, just days after a lull that had raised hopes for lasting de-escalation. On the ground, the night was heavy. In the financial markets, the reaction proved to be markedly more mixed than what might have been feared, with oil prices soaring while stock indices, once the dust settled, shrugged it off. Key points of this article:

• Military escalation between Iran and the United States resumed on the night of July 29 to 30, reigniting tensions after a brief lull.
• Financial markets reacted variably, with a spike in oil prices due to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, while stock indices were more influenced by decisions from the Federal Reserve.

War in Iran: Timeline of a Two-Phase Escalation {#h-war-in-iran-timeline-of-a-two-phase-escalation}

It all started with a failed attack. On Tuesday, July 28, at 5:45 PM New York time, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) fired several ballistic missiles at American positions in the Middle East, including a base in Jordan. The Jordanian army claims to have intercepted five. Result: no impact reported on the American side, according to a statement from CENTCOM, the U.S. military command for the region.

At the same time, on the evening of July 28, U.S.-Saudi joint strikes also targeted logistical sites of militias aligned with Tehran in Iraq: the Popular Mobilization Forces (a coalition of predominantly Shiite factions integrated into the Iraqi armed forces) reported about twenty deaths, including five Iranian advisors from the IRGC, and 32 injuries. Donald Trump described these strikes as "coordinated" with Baghdad, despite Iraqi protests over a possible violation of its sovereignty.

The American response against Iran came the following evening. Around 8 PM New York time on July 29, the U.S. military launched a new wave of strikes against dozens of IRGC targets in Iran. ![Screenshot of the tweet from @CENTCOM published on July 30, 2026: "U.S. forces began launching strikes against Iran at 8 p.m. ET today. The strikes are a powerful response to yesterday's attempted Iranian attacks on U.S. forces based in the Middle East."] ![Screenshot of the tweet from @CENTCOM published on July 30, 2026: "U.S. forces began launching strikes against Iran at 8 p.m. ET today. The strikes are a powerful response to yesterday's attempted Iranian attacks on U.S. forces based in the Middle East."] Official tweet from U.S. Central Command announcing the start of strikes against Iran -- Source: X

"U.S. forces began launching strikes against Iran at 8 p.m. ET today. The strikes are a powerful response to yesterday's attempted Iranian attacks on U.S. forces based in the Middle East."

Furthermore, explosions have been reported in Bandar Abbas, Kish, and Qeshm, all near the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world's oil passes. Earlier in the day, from the Oval Office, Trump warned: << We will hit them very hard because it is our turn to hit them. They know it is coming >>, according to remarks relayed by CNN.

Oil, the Only True Thermometer of the Day {#h-oil-the-only-true-thermometer-of-the-day}

In the energy markets, the message has been clear. Brent (international benchmark) rose by about 7% on July 29, flirting with $90 a barrel, before stabilizing in the evening at $90.02 (-0.79% in the last hour of trading).

The WTI (U.S. benchmark), meanwhile, was trading at $84.16 (-0.36%) at the same time, around 8:37 PM New York time. A significant enough increase to remind us that the risk in the Strait of Hormuz is anything but theoretical, even though prices slightly receded once the initial shock was digested.

Wall Street Dips, but the Blame Lies Primarily with the Fed {#h-wall-street-dips-but-the-blame-lies-primarily-with-the-fed}

On the stock side, the picture is more misleading than it appears. The Dow Jones closed Wednesday down 1,153 points (-2.19%), at 51,594 points, its worst session since April 2025. The S&P 500 lost 1.52% and the Nasdaq Composite 1.74%.

But be careful not to place all the blame on Iran: this drop owes much to the Federal Reserve, which kept its rates unchanged that same day with three dissenting governors (Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan) calling for a 25 basis point increase, reviving inflation fears. The two shocks, monetary and geopolitical, simply collided on the same day.

Even more revealing: once the American strikes were launched in the evening, futures contracts regained some color. Around 8:37 PM New York time, Dow futures gained 94 points (+0.18%) to 51,859 points, S&P 500 futures 20 points (+0.27%) to 7,371.25 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures 198.25 points (+0.73%) to 27,540.25 points, according to Benzinga. Modest gains, certainly, but gains nonetheless, as the strikes had just begun. This suggests that traders had largely anticipated this response.

Bitcoin, True to Itself {#h-bitcoin-true-to-itself}

In the world of cryptocurrencies, indifference is almost total. The Bitcoin price has remained confined to a narrow range between $63,000 and $64,000, while Ethereum hovered around $1,900, with XRP and Dogecoin doing the same without a clear direction.

According to data from Coinglass, about $400 million has been liquidated in 24 hours on the crypto market, mostly long positions. Analyst Ali Martinez, quoted in the same article, suggests that large wallets have accumulated 29,075 BTC over the week, a signal he interprets as a bet on a rebound. However, this interpretation remains that of a single analyst and should be taken with the usual caution.

This contrast between electric oil and globally stoic financial assets says something important about 2026: after several rounds of the same conflict since spring, investors seem to have learned to isolate the real risk, the one that directly affects oil supply via Hormuz, from the generalized geopolitical noise. However, this relative calm hangs by a thread: a closure, even partial, of the strait would immediately change the game for global inflation, a scenario that neither the Fed nor the crypto markets have yet had to face in reality.