Wall Street Morning Briefing: Iran Sanctions Details to be Announced Tonight, Nvidia Server Prices Expected to Rise, Tesla Surges Over 5% Leading the Seven Giants

Every Monday to Friday morning, we focus on macroeconomics, US stocks, AI, precious metals, and crude oil, using data to review the market and trends to seize opportunities, produced by PANews.

Two Fronts Tightening Simultaneously, Market Testing "Buy Expectations, Sell Facts"

On Friday, the US August Composite PMI preliminary value exceeded expectations, rising to a four-year high, with strong service sector expansion offsetting manufacturing weakness, pushing all three major indices to close higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.98%, marking the largest single-day increase since May; the S&P 500 rose 0.43%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.44%. However, from a weekly perspective, the rebound was not enough to change the trend. The S&P 500 fell 1.43% for the week, the Nasdaq fell 2.05%, and the Dow fell 0.85%, with the Nasdaq ending a three-week streak of gains.

What is truly concerning is the bond market. On August 24, during the Asian morning session, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury was about 4.71%, and the 30-year yield was about 5.245%, both at high levels for the past year; last Tuesday, the 30-year yield briefly touched 5.338%, the highest level since 2007. Fiscal deficits, energy inflation, AI corporate bond issuance, and uncertainty in Federal Reserve policy are simultaneously pushing up term premiums.

Treasury Secretary Becerra expanded the long-term Treasury buyback scale but did not fundamentally reverse long-end yields. Goldman Sachs believes that to sustainably suppress rising yields, fiscal consolidation or further inflation benefits may be needed; otherwise, long-term yields could rise to the 5.2%-6% range until investors are willing to take on more duration.

The US dollar index hovers around 98.72, close to a three-month low. Gold Predict technical analyst AG Thorson believes that the dollar may have formed a significant top in June, and after breaking below the 200-day moving average, the technical indicators further confirm a weak cycle, with the dollar index possibly falling below 90 next year.

Gold and silver performed strongly, with futures gold rising over 5% for the week, breaking through $4,700 this morning, continuing to set new highs since May; futures silver rose over 6% for the week, briefly surpassing $70. Spot gold broke through $4,650 during the session but retreated after a peak. AG Thorson believes that gold and silver may have completed a mid-year bottom, with gold possibly breaking $7,000 next year, and silver likely consolidating around $90 to $100 before setting new highs. Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio warned that the US fiscal situation has reached a turning point, and if deficits and debt continue to worsen, a debt crisis could erupt within 1-5 years (roughly three years), recommending reducing bond holdings and allocating 10%-15% to gold and a small amount of Bitcoin.

Regarding Iran, Treasury Secretary Becerra stated that they will launch an "economic Normandy landings day" against Iran—historically the largest-scale financial offensive, focusing on secondary sanctions on purchasing Iranian oil, transfers, and ship-to-ship transfers, with details expected to be announced during Monday's session, stating, "Large-scale military action is no longer expected." The Iranian parliament is advancing a fee scheme for the Strait of Hormuz, with top security officials warning that if the economic war continues, "not a drop of oil will be exported," shipping has already seen a decline, and oil prices are under pressure. On August 24, during the Asian morning session, Brent was about $91.4 per barrel, and WTI was about $85.6 per barrel, retreating from previous highs, more like profit-taking before the announcement of sanction details.

In trade, tensions between the US and Canada are escalating. The US has imposed a 50% tariff on about $20 billion worth of Canadian goods, effective August 22, and Canada announced it will implement equivalent counter-tariffs on US goods on September 8, covering dairy products, steel, home appliances, pulp, and electronics. The Canadian side assesses that the hope of restarting negotiations before the midterm elections is slim and is preparing a long-term assistance plan. On the same day, Trump temporarily exempted ground beef import tariffs for 90 days, allowing up to 300,000 tons of imports to lower consumer prices.

AI Infrastructure Costs Soar, Extending Payback Period

Last Friday, US stocks rebounded, but AI semiconductors did not keep pace. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 0.51%, Nvidia fell 0.97%, ARM fell 2.95%, Marvell Technology fell 5.57%, and Intel fell 2.24%. The market is questioning the return on AI capital expenditures, with the well-known hedge fund Castle Investment disclosing that it has reduced semiconductor exposure by over 80% through more than 100 large transactions, involving over $4 billion, mainly concerning Micron, Nvidia, Broadcom, TSMC, CoreWeave, Nebius, and other core AI and semiconductor targets.

Meanwhile, some of Nvidia's largest customers have been informed that due to soaring storage chip costs, the prices of servers equipped with Nvidia AI chips may rise by more than 15% next year. For Nvidia, the price increase indicates strong pricing power; but for customers like Microsoft, Google, and Oracle, it means higher AI investment costs and longer payback periods.

Additionally, Chinese tech giant Alibaba announced the completion of an HK$80 billion placement to enhance its full-stack AI capabilities, influenced by this news and market sentiment, its US stock plummeted over 8% on Friday, and its Hong Kong stock opened under further pressure on Monday. "Big Short" Michael Burry also publicly liquidated his Alibaba position and shifted to JD.com, stating that Alibaba's placement of new shares has become the norm, and he will not consider it again unless the stock price is halved.

Analysts point out that the AI industry is transitioning from the "faith-based trading" phase to the "verification trading" phase, with the market increasingly focusing on cash flow, gross margins, and electricity costs. This Wednesday, after the US stock market closes, NVIDIA will announce its second-quarter earnings. The market expects its revenue for the July quarter to reach $95 billion, and the October quarter revenue guidance may reach $108 billion. Investors will focus on four core indicators: Blackwell chip shipment progress, Rubin platform transition capability, AI supply-demand relationship, and NVIDIA's financing responsibilities when securing large customer orders.

Moreover, the price war among AI models is intensifying (OpenAI and Google are cutting prices), and AI startup Anthropic is rumored to have a fundraising plan exceeding $100 billion, further highlighting that the industry is entering a capital battle phase of "competing in computing power, electricity, and financing."

Specific Project Actions and Stock Price Fluctuations:

• Tesla rose 5.14%, reaching a new high for the month, with a cumulative increase of over 16% this month. Nevada has approved Tesla, Waymo, and Uber to launch Robotaxi services in Las Vegas (up to 5,000 Tesla vehicles), and the company announced a Cybercab launch event in Austin on September 3, with models without steering wheels and pedals expected to join the fleet.
• Nvidia fell 0.97%, with the stock price retreating mainly due to cautious funding ahead of the earnings report, as the market worries about server price increases, rising costs, margin pressures, and AI order financing responsibilities. In the semiconductor sector, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 0.51%, ARM fell 2.95%, Intel fell 2.24%, TSMC ADR rose 0.71%, and Broadcom rose 1.21%.
• Marvell fell 5.57%, as the market proactively reduced high-beta exposure in the AI network and custom chip chain ahead of the earnings season, especially after Broadcom was reported to be negotiating $70 billion to $80 billion in AI infrastructure debt financing, making investors more sensitive to the capital needs and profit quality of AI hardware companies.
• Alibaba's US stock fell 8.58%, and its Hong Kong stock fell nearly 10% in early trading. The company announced a placement financing of about HK$80 billion, with all funds used for AI. The market is concerned about short-term equity dilution. "Big Short" Michael Burry stated he has sold Alibaba and switched to JD.com, saying he will not be interested again unless Alibaba's stock price drops by half. Among Chinese concept stocks, NetEase rose 6.98%, Xiaomi rose 4.48%, Tencent rose 1.57%, Meituan fell 1.42%, and Pinduoduo fell 1.27%.
• Palantir rose 3.44%: Among AI software stocks, Palantir continues to attract funding due to clear demand from its government and enterprise clients. The cybersecurity sector also strengthened, with Cloudflare rising over 5%, Zscaler rising nearly 4%, and Palo Alto Networks rising over 2%.
• Cryptocurrency concept stocks surged, mainly driven by Bitcoin approaching $80,000, rising liquidity expectations, and the Trump administration's crypto-friendly policies. Robinhood rose nearly 14%, Coinbase rose over 8%, Strategy rose over 6%, Circle and Bitmine rose over 5%, and IREN fell nearly 2%.
• Gold mining stocks collectively rose: After gold prices broke through $4,600, the profit elasticity of mining companies was amplified. Eldorado Gold rose over 7%, Harmony Gold rose nearly 7%, AngloGold rose nearly 6%, Kinross Gold rose over 4%, and Barrick Gold rose nearly 3%.
• Southern Copper rose 8.7%, reaching a historic closing high. The weak dollar and rising commodity trading boosted resource stocks. The rare earth concept was also strong, with Critical Metals rising over 22%, TMC the metals rising nearly 21%, USA Rare Earth rising over 12%, and MP Materials rising over 9%.
• Goldman Sachs rose 3.74%, and Morgan Stanley rose over 2%. Financial stocks were driven by high long-end rates and value stock replenishment. Goldman Sachs also selected Boeing, First Capital, Mastercard, SpaceX, Thermo Fisher Scientific, and Visa as preferred stocks for hedge funds and mutual funds.
• Apple fell 0.63%: The company laid off over 200 people from teams related to Siri and Vision Pro, and the market believes Apple is reallocating resources towards AI and new devices, but it also indicates that the short-term commercialization of Vision Pro is still not smooth. Among large tech stocks, Google rose 1.05%, Meta rose 0.75%, Microsoft rose about 1%, and Amazon fell about 0.3%.

This Week's Focus:

August 24 (Monday)

• SK Hynix union voting on wages and labor agreements from August 24 to 25: If labor negotiations are disrupted, the market will pay attention to whether the HBM and storage supply chains are affected. SK Hynix is a core supplier of AI storage, and related news may impact Micron, Samsung, and Nvidia supply chain sentiment.

• Pinduoduo (19:30 conference call), Leap Motor, Xpeng Motors earnings: Pinduoduo will focus on Temu growth and profit margins; Xpeng and Leap Motor will focus on deliveries, gross margins, and autonomous driving investments.

August 25 (Tuesday)

• 02:00 US Treasury Secretary Becerra to announce details of sanctions against Iran: Focus on whether sanctions will target third countries purchasing Iranian oil. If the measures are strict, oil prices, gold, and energy stocks may strengthen; if exemptions are allowed, oil prices may retreat.

• Jefferies Semiconductor, IT Hardware, and Communication Technology Conference from August 25 to 26: Many well-known semiconductor and technology companies, including TSMC, FormFactor, Aehr Test Systems, Arbe Robotics, will participate in discussions. Industry discussions will focus on AI accelerators, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), advanced packaging, data center demand, and automotive semiconductors.

August 26 (Wednesday)

• Gamescom in Cologne, Germany, from August 26 to 30, opening at 02:00: Companies such as Microsoft, Nintendo, Tencent, NetEase, and CDPR will be prominently featured. The market will focus on new game releases, AI gaming tools, cloud gaming, and hardware ecosystem news, which may impact sentiment in gaming, graphics cards, consoles, and content platforms.

• 20:30 US July Core PCE, Q2 GDP revision: PCE is the inflation indicator most closely watched by the Federal Reserve. If inflation exceeds expectations, US Treasury yields may rise, putting pressure on the Nasdaq; if below expectations, gold and tech stocks may receive support.

• Deutsche Bank California Technology Conference from August 26 to 27 in Dana Point, California.

• Shenzhen AGIC General AI Exhibition from August 26 to 28, coinciding with the Data Expo (August 28 to 30), with intensive AI industry conferences focusing on embodied intelligence, AI application progress.

August 27 (Thursday)

• 04:00 Nvidia earnings report: The market will focus on data center revenue, Blackwell shipments, Rubin progress, gross margins, and future guidance. If the guidance is strong, the AI sector may reignite; if gross margins or order quality fall short of expectations, semiconductors may continue to adjust.

• Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference from August 27 to 29: Global central bank officials will discuss financial innovation, inflation, and policy paths. The market will prepare for Waller's speech, and fluctuations in bonds and the dollar may be amplified.

• Bilibili, Vanke, China Life, China Aluminum earnings: Bilibili will focus on advertising, gaming, and profit margins; Vanke will reflect real estate pressures; China Life will look at the impact of capital market fluctuations on investment returns; China Aluminum will be affected by commodity prices.

August 28 (Friday)

• 04:45 Marvell Technology earnings report: This is an important observation point for the AI chip sector. If guidance is weak, it will drag down semiconductor sentiment; if orders are strong, it will help repair the AI hardware sector.

• Zhipu GLM-5.3 weights expected to be officially open-sourced on August 28: The market is concerned about whether it is related to the anonymous model Ox Alpha "Niu Lai." If the open-source model's capabilities approach those of the closed-source frontier level, it may continue to catalyze sentiment in China's large models, AI applications, cloud computing, and domestic computing power chains.

• 22:00 Federal Reserve Chairman Waller speaks at Jackson Hole: This is the biggest macro event of the week. If he emphasizes anti-inflation, the dollar and US Treasury yields may strengthen, putting pressure on tech stocks; if he releases a moderate signal, risk assets may rebound.

• 22:00 US Non-Farm Payroll Benchmark Revision, Michigan Consumer Confidence Index: If employment data is significantly revised down, the market will worry that the US economy is actually weaker; if inflation expectations rise, the Fed's room for rate cuts will be compressed.

• Meituan, BYD, China Petroleum earnings: Meituan will focus on delivery competition and profit margins; BYD will focus on overseas expansion and new energy vehicle gross margins; China Petroleum will be affected by oil prices and natural gas demand.

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