The wholesale dollar has gone five days without declines, although it remains below $1,500

The foreign exchange market maintained its upward trend this Tuesday, but the wholesale dollar remained below $1,500, marking a new historical nominal high. Meanwhile, the blue dollar also broke new records.

The official dollar is trading at $1,500.5 for wholesale sales, placing it at 22.7% of the upper limit of the exchange rate band --- currently at $1,841.16---.

On the other hand, futures contracts show increases of up to 0.2% for the 2026 maturities. The market estimates that the wholesale exchange rate will be around $1,499 by the end of July and approximately $1,640 in December.

At the retail level, the dollar is priced at $1,520 for sales at Banco Nación (BNA), which means that the dollar for international purchases reaches $1,976. According to the survey of financial entities conducted by the Central Bank (BCRA), the average exchange rate is $1,520.38 for sales.

The blue dollar is also operating at its historical nominal high, climbing to $1,570 for sales, according to a survey by Ámbito in the city’s informal markets. In the city, there is an understanding that there is room for relative exchange calm during the second half of the year.

Among financial instruments, the MEP dollar rises to $1,536.04, while the cash with settlement (CCL) dollar climbs 0.1% to $1,601.78.

The rise of the blue dollar coincides with the typical end-of-month demand and a more challenging international context. The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the rise in oil prices, and the reimposition of tariffs by the U.S. have strengthened the dollar globally and increased the demand for assets considered safe havens. Additionally, local market seasonal factors, such as end-of-month salary payments and the closing of positions in the futures market, have contributed to this.

However, beyond these specific movements, various analysts believe that there are fundamentals that could keep the exchange rate contained in the coming months.

Three factors supporting exchange calm

The first is the inflow of foreign currency from the agro-export complex. The recovery of international prices, with soybeans again near $460 per ton in Chicago, combines with a significant volume of exports still pending liquidation, even after the most intense phase of the grain harvest has ended.

The second element is the advancement of the Incentive Regime for Large Investments (RIGI). While the realization of projects will partly depend on the political scenario leading up to the 2027 elections, investment announcements strengthen the prospects for capital inflows in the coming years.

According to the consulting firm Qualy, the projects announced under the RIGI represent investments of around $31 billion, while additional exports could reach $13 billion annually between 2027 and 2030, eventually stabilizing around $35 billion per year under the regime.

The third support comes from the energy sector. The international rise in oil prices, driven by the conflict in the Middle East, has improved export prospects and strengthened the energy surplus.

Foreign trade projections also favor the foreign exchange market. Abeceb estimates that Argentine exports could reach around $100 billion this year and that the trade surplus would be approximately $21 billion, nearly double that recorded in 2025. The boost comes mainly from agriculture, energy, and mining, while imports continue to show more moderate growth.

Meanwhile, private demand for foreign currency remains contained. The slowdown in inflation, positive real interest rates, and the renewed attractiveness of peso-denominated placements continue to favor carry trade strategies, reducing the need for exchange rate hedging.

In this scenario, while international volatility continues to condition the daily behavior of the market and the blue dollar reflects greater sensitivity, many analysts believe that the expected flows of foreign currency would allow for a relatively stable exchange rate for the remainder of the year, unless there is a significant deterioration in the external context or changes in international financial conditions.

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