New Player Enters the Market! Prediction Platform Kalshi Enters the Precious Metals Perpetual Futures Arena

The U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi has submitted an application to the CFTC to launch perpetual futures contracts for gold, silver, and platinum. As demand for traditional asset trading heats up, perpetual futures are expanding into a broader market.

Kalshi is expanding its perpetual futures business from cryptocurrencies to traditional asset markets, targeting precious metals such as gold, silver, and platinum.

According to reports, Kalshi has submitted an application to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch perpetual futures contracts linked to precious metals. Under regulatory procedures, the CFTC will decide whether to approve the application within 45 days. Compared to some event contracts that can be self-certified for listing on exchanges, new products like perpetual futures are subject to stricter regulatory scrutiny.

The proposed precious metals perpetual futures are expected to offer trading five days a week, 24 hours a day, aligning with traditional precious metals market trading hours, rather than operating year-round like cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. Kalshi's Chief Risk Officer Udesh Jha stated that the company is still evaluating the possibility of extending trading hours further.

Perpetual futures are derivatives with no expiration date, allowing investors to amplify market exposure through leverage. Historically, these products have primarily been active in the cryptocurrency market, but recently, as geopolitical conflicts have intensified, demand for trading traditional assets has risen, leading perpetual futures to enter more fields. For example, during the Iran war, some retail investors used related products to trade oil prices, circumventing the traditional futures market's trading restrictions.

Kalshi's expansion also reflects the intensifying competition among trading platforms in the perpetual futures market. Emerging platforms, including Hyperliquid, have already launched contracts linked to real assets such as gold and crude oil, forcing traditional exchanges to accelerate their strategies. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME) plans to officially launch 24/7 trading services for its existing 1-ounce gold futures contracts this week (July 26).

Meanwhile, the gold market itself is undergoing a critical adjustment phase. Since reaching a historical high at the end of January this year, gold prices have seen a maximum decline of about 25%. Previously, due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve might maintain high interest rates, gold, as a non-yielding asset, was under pressure. However, several institutions believe that the current gold price has shown signs of being oversold, and a rebound opportunity is forming.

U.S. research institution Zweig-DiMenna pointed out that the recent increase in gold purchases by the People's Bank of China may indicate that the market is building a bottom.

According to data disclosed by the People's Bank of China, the official gold reserves increased by 40 tons in the first half of 2026, reaching 75.44 million ounces (approximately 2,346.45 tons) by the end of June, marking the 20th consecutive month of gold accumulation by the central bank. In June alone, 15 tons were added, the largest monthly purchase scale since October 2023. In comparison, the total purchase scale of the People's Bank of China in 2025 was only about $2 billion.

Zweig-DiMenna stated that the current gold price is about 10% below the 200-day moving average, and historically, similar situations have led to significant rebounds after 1999 and 2022. However, cases from 1981 and 2013 also show that even after being oversold, gold prices may still decline further, so market trends remain dependent on the macro environment.

Morgan Stanley is also optimistic about the future of gold, with its commodities team expecting a year-end gold price target of $4,450 per ounce, primarily based on the continued gold purchases by global central banks.

However, the current demand for gold purchases by central banks is still partially offset by outflows from gold ETFs. Last year, ETF investors contributed about one-fifth of the gold demand, but due to easing geopolitical risks, changes in interest rate expectations, and gold price corrections, investor enthusiasm has declined.

The key to future gold price trends still lies in Federal Reserve policy. If inflation continues to cool, and the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates or even cuts rates in the future, a decline in real interest rates may enhance gold's attractiveness again and drive ETF funds back.

Institutions believe that the recent adjustment in gold does not mean a disruption of long-term logic. As global central banks increase gold reserves, market risk aversion continues, and new trading tools emerge, the gold market may be brewing the next round of trends. Kalshi's layout of precious metals perpetual futures also indicates that traditional asset trading is evolving towards a more flexible and high-frequency direction.

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