Insee, ECB in Berlin: The 2 Events Shaping This Wednesday, September 9

The night brings counsel. This Wednesday, September 9, this old proverb holds true from a safe distance. A figure upon waking, a political gathering in the evening. Insee will publish its industrial production index for July at 8:45 AM, a sector still searching for its rebound after two months of decline. Twelve hours later, the scene will change completely. In Berlin, Christine Lagarde will share the table at an official dinner hosted by the Bundesbank, on the eve of an ECB rate decision that the entire Eurozone is watching. Two events, one common thread: that of a European economy hesitating between slowdown and rising prices. Key points of this article: * Insee revealed a declining industrial production index for July, marking a third consecutive month of decline, as the European economy hesitates between slowdown and rising prices. * Christine Lagarde attended an official dinner of the Bundesbank in Berlin, on the eve of a crucial ECB interest rate decision, sparking speculation about her future at the head of the institution. The meeting is set for 8:45 AM Paris time. Insee will deliver the industrial production index for July, a sector struggling to get out of the rut since spring. Two months of consecutive decline. June recorded a drop of 1.1% month-on-month, following -1.0% in May. In this context, household consumption remains sluggish, and export order books are thinning. Nevertheless, there is a positive sign. The institute noted in its July survey a renewed optimism among manufacturers regarding future foreign demand. A third consecutive decline would confirm a sluggish quarter, just weeks away from the next growth figures. The day before, on Tuesday, Insee had already published the prices of existing homes. Still without a significant rebound, a market that has been searching for its floor for two years. In Berlin, the Bundesbank hosts Lagarde on the eve of the ECB's verdict. A complete change of scene at 7:00 PM, Berlin time, which is the same as Paris time since both capitals share the same time zone. The Bundesbank hosts dinner for the members of the ECB's Governing Council, on the sidelines of a monetary policy meeting that opens today in the German capital and concludes tomorrow. Chancellor Friedrich Merz himself is set to join the table. A head of government at a dinner of central bankers is quite rare. Christine Lagarde arrives under double pressure. Eurozone inflation rose from 2.9% to 3.3% year-on-year between July and August. This has led economists to anticipate a 25 basis point increase in the deposit rate, to 2.50%, as soon as the decision on Thursday. The verdict will be announced at 2:15 PM Paris time, followed by Lagarde's press conference at 2:45 PM. Speculation is also mounting regarding her own future at the head of the institution. Berlin would like to see Joachim Nagel, head of the Bundesbank, succeed her. Nothing official yet. But Nagel is hosting the woman whose position he might take. These two events may seem insignificant when taken separately. An industrial index and a protocol dinner usually fly under the radar of crypto markets. Except that the mechanism connecting them is the same one that caused Bitcoin to plunge below $80,000 after the U.S. employment report in early September. Every macro data point, whether French or German, feeds into the same calculation regarding the convergence of interest rates on both sides of the Atlantic, and thus on the gap that is already weighing on the dollar and risk assets. The Fed will decide on September 16, a week after the ECB. And Christine Lagarde could leave the ECB before the end of her term to influence a completely different timeline. That of the French presidential election. Two unrelated timelines, except for the name of the woman who is monitoring both tonight from Berlin.

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