Crypto Stocks Shaken by Bitcoin: Kaiko Research Highlights Coinbase and Circle's Key Factors as 'Scale, Liquidity, and Diversification'

Cryptocurrency-related stocks have been moving separately from the upward trend of the U.S. stock market in 2026, further highlighting their 'Bitcoin (BTC) beta' characteristics. Thomas Probst from Kaiko Research recently reported that major stocks such as Coinbase (COIN), Circle Internet Group (CRCL), Gemini (GEMI), and Bullish (BLSH) are reacting more sensitively to the overall price movements and trading conditions of the cryptocurrency market than to individual company fundamentals. In particular, the analysis indicates that the slowdown in trading volume and intensified competition have made scale, liquidity, and diversification of revenue sources key variables for survival across the exchange industry.

Cryptocurrency-Related Stocks More Strongly Linked to Bitcoin than U.S. Stock Market

According to the report, listed exchange stocks have generally struggled since early 2026. Gemini has fallen nearly 60% since the beginning of the year, Bullish is down about 40%, and Coinbase has dropped around 36%. During the same period, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose approximately 12.8%, while Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 27.31%, showing a similar direction to Coinbase. This suggests that investors still view cryptocurrency-related stocks as a means of indirect exposure to the cryptocurrency market rather than traditional stocks.

The actual correlation figures support this. According to Kaiko Research, the 30-day moving correlation coefficient between Coinbase and Bitcoin has remained positive throughout the period and rose to 0.76 after June. In contrast, the correlation coefficient between Coinbase and SPX dropped to about 0.33 during the same period. While Coinbase is not completely isolated from macroeconomic conditions and overall stock market risk appetite, the key drivers moving its stock price are increasingly converging on internal factors within the cryptocurrency market.

This phenomenon is also linked to the structure of the exchange business. Exchange revenues still show a high correlation with trading activity, and when market prices are weak or trading volumes decline, concerns about performance slowdown are immediately reflected. Conversely, in a rebound phase for the cryptocurrency market, expectations for recovery in platform activity grow. Ultimately, cryptocurrency-related stocks like Coinbase are being evaluated as assets that are closer to 'cryptocurrency beta' than traditional stock market beta.

Coinbase: A Case of Economies of Scale Revealed Even in a Bear Market

In this environment, Coinbase is cited as a prime example of the industry's restructuring direction. The company announced in its Q2 results on July 30, 2026, that it recorded adjusted EBITDA profits for 14 consecutive quarters. At the same time, it reduced its workforce by 14% and lowered its annual adjusted cost guidance, strengthening cost control. This means it has defended its profitability even amid a sluggish cryptocurrency market.

However, despite this performance, the stock price movement remains closely linked to Bitcoin (BTC). This indicates that the market views Coinbase not merely as a traditional financial stock but as a direct beneficiary of the cryptocurrency trading environment. The report suggests that even if Coinbase maintains a high correlation with Bitcoin in terms of stock price, proving 'resilience' in operational terms will be key to long-term value.

In particular, the importance of scale is becoming increasingly prominent across the exchange industry. Announcements of closures from platforms like BitMEX, Bit.com, and BitMart suggest that more small platforms are unable to withstand declining trading volumes, fee competition, high operating costs, and increasing compliance demands. In such an environment, larger players that can secure more liquidity and attract market makers and institutional investors are structurally favored. The stronger the network effect in the industry, the more concentrated trading tends to become among top players.

Indeed, Coinbase's daily trading volume has decreased throughout the year, recently dropping to around $1 billion. The slowdown in trading volume directly pressures trading-based revenues but simultaneously clarifies the infrastructure gap. Among the tracked exchanges, the top six platforms already account for over 60% of total trading volume, with Binance alone holding about 34%. While trading on Coinbase is also concentrated around BTC-USD, trading pairs based on Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), Solana (SOL), Zcash (ZEC), and Tether (USDT) are forming a significant share, somewhat reducing dependence on a single asset.

Diversification of revenue structure is also a factor enhancing Coinbase's defensibility. The company is expanding its offerings beyond spot trading to include derivatives, prediction markets, staking, custody, institutional services, and stablecoin sectors. Notably, 88% of its net revenue in Q2 2026 came from activities other than Bitcoin spot trading, symbolizing this change. The report emphasizes that in a bear market, the competitiveness of exchanges is determined more by 'strong infrastructure' and 'diversified revenue sources' than by simple trading volume.

Circle: Intensifying Defense of USDC... Open USD as a Potential Competitive Variable

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) demonstrates the sensitivity of cryptocurrency-related stocks in a different way than exchanges. The company has grown around the stablecoin USD Coin (USDC) but is now facing new challenges from the rise of competing stablecoins. The 'Open USD' announced on June 30, 2026, targets the regulatory-friendly dollar stablecoin market, directly overlapping with Circle's core business area.

As of June 2026, USDC recorded a market capitalization of about $70 billion, maintaining a strong position. It has been evaluated as a key payment asset bridging traditional finance and the cryptocurrency market, emphasizing transparency, regulatory compliance, and institutional-friendly structure. The stablecoin market operates under strong network effects involving liquidity, exchange integration, market maker participation, and payment use cases, making it difficult for latecomers to quickly secure market share.

Nevertheless, potential risks are evident. More important than the technical aspect of issuing stablecoins is the distribution network and adoption speed; if Open USD converts institutional support into actual market share, USDC's growth potential may be pressured. This could lead to valuation burdens for Circle. However, at this point, the interpretation is that 'potential competitive risks' are being reflected in stock prices before actual data confirming market share changes.

In a Phase of Declining Trading Volume, the Key to Cryptocurrency-Related Stocks Lies in Structural Strength

In summary, cryptocurrency-related stocks in 2026 are still significantly influenced by the overall price movements of the market, particularly the direction of Bitcoin (BTC). However, Thomas Probst from Kaiko Research points out that it is now difficult to explain the future of the sector solely through simple cryptocurrency exposure. In a phase of declining trading volumes and intensified competition, the decisive differentiating factors will be who has the most robust infrastructure, who has secured deeper liquidity, and who has built more diverse revenue sources.

Ultimately, the next phase for cryptocurrency-related stocks, including Coinbase and Circle, depends on how well each company can convert cryptocurrency exposure into a sustainable business model. In the short term, Bitcoin (BTC) and trading sentiment may shake stock prices, but in the medium to long term, the three axes of 'scale', 'liquidity', and 'diversification' are likely to determine winners and losers.