Bitcoin: Individuals Hold Three Times More at Home Than Wall Street ETFs

Wall Street is not yet the biggest whale. Despite the rise of spot ETFs and corporate treasuries, non-custodial wallets are estimated to hold nearly 13.83 million BTC, according to River's report on Bitcoin custody. At the current price, this amount exceeds $800 billion, nearly three times the approximately $300 billion held by ETFs and corporate or state treasuries. However, this estimate should be approached with caution: an address not attributed to an institution does not necessarily belong to an individual, and some of these bitcoins are likely lost. Explanations. Key points of this article: * Wall Street has not yet surpassed individuals in Bitcoin holdings, with individuals holding nearly 13.83 million BTC, far more than ETFs and corporate treasuries. * A significant portion of bitcoins is potentially lost, which reduces the actual liquid supply and may amplify price fluctuations in the event of increased institutional demand. The progress of institutions is remarkable, but they start from a long way off. Spot Bitcoin ETFs and listed companies now play a central role in daily flows, yet they do not dominate the existing stock. According to River Financial, self-custody wallets would represent 13.83 million BTC. The figure of 65.9% put forward by River corresponds to the comparison with the 21 million bitcoins that could exist in total. Presenting it as a share of the circulating supply would therefore be inaccurate. Compared to the approximately 20 million BTC already mined, the theoretical weight of this category would be higher. This estimate does not allow us to assert that 13.83 million BTC are actively controlled by individuals. Analytical tools identify addresses known to exchanges, ETFs, companies, or governments, and then classify the rest by deduction. Unidentified companies, former custody services, and especially wallets whose keys have been lost can therefore hide in this category. River estimates that 1.57 million BTC would be permanently inaccessible. They still appear on the blockchain and inflate the stock held off exchanges, but their owners can no longer sell them. Self-custody reduces supply but shifts the risk. The decline in balances held on exchanges nonetheless confirms a trend: many buyers withdraw their bitcoins after acquisition. As long as they remain in a personal wallet, these BTC cannot be lent or sold by an intermediary and contribute less directly to order books. This situation makes the actual liquid supply much weaker than the total number of mined bitcoins. More than 12 million BTC have not moved for at least a year and over 6 million for five years. An increase in institutional demand may therefore encounter a reduced float, potentially amplifying price movements. Self-custody eliminates the risk of a custodian's bankruptcy, as reminded by Mt. Gox, Celsius, BlockFi, and FTX. However, it creates another risk: losing or exposing your private key means permanently losing your funds. River does not recommend a one-size-fits-all solution. The report advocates a combination suited to each person's skills between personal wallets, multi-signature, and transparent custodians. The company is not neutral in this debate. River itself provides Bitcoin services and stated in May 2026 that it held over 25,000 BTC for its clients, with a full reserve model and monthly attestations. It also held 437 BTC for its own account. Institutions are currently the focus of all attention, but the majority of bitcoins still escape their balance sheets. The largest whale in the market remains this multitude of individual wallets, old addresses, and sometimes lost BTC, immense in volume, but impossible to reduce to a homogeneous group.

This content is provided for general informational purposes only and doesn't constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Any events, rewards, online promotions, or related information mentioned herein should not be considered a recommendation, solicitation, or invitation to purchase, sell, trade, or otherwise deal in any crypto assets. Crypto assets are highly volatile and may result in loss. The availability of WEEX services, products, and related events may vary by region. You are responsible for ensuring that your participation is in accordance with applicable local laws and regulations.