- Buy Crypto
- Markets
Futures- Spot
- Copy Trade
- Earn
- More
Stars align for Bitcoin rally to $100K, but futures traders exercise caution — Here’s why
By: bitcoin ethereum news|2025/05/03 18:15:01
0
Share
Key takeaways: BTC hit $97,900 due to soaring institutional investor demand, but futures pricing shows traders aren’t confident in a sustained rally. Macroeconomic risks and global trade tensions cap bullish sentiment despite $3.6 billion in spot BTC ETF inflows. BTC options lean bullish, suggesting big players expect upside, but their caution keeps leverage use low. Bitcoin (BTC) broke out of a tight trading range between $93,000 and $95,600 on May 1, following six days of limited movement. Despite reaching its highest price in ten weeks at $97,930, sentiment remains neutral according to BTC derivatives indicators. This price action has occurred alongside significant net inflows into US spot exchange-traded Bitcoin funds (ETFs). Some of the disappointment among traders can be attributed to the ongoing global tariff dispute, which is beginning to affect macroeconomic data. Bitcoin traders are concerned that, despite growing interest from institutional investors, fears of an economic recession could limit price performance. This concern reduces the likelihood of BTC reaching $110,000 or higher in 2025. The annualized premium for Bitcoin’s two-month futures has remained between 6% and 7% over the past week, staying within the neutral range of 5% to 10%. Compared to January, when Bitcoin was trading near $95,000 and the futures premium was above 10%, traders’ sentiment has weakened. This data suggests there is less optimism, or at least less conviction, in further price gains toward $100,000 and above. Gold’s performance outshone Bitcoin’s modest gains Some market participants point to gold’s 20% rally, from $2,680 to $3,220, as a source of concern. Although Bitcoin recently surpassed silver’s $1.8 trillion market capitalization to become the seventh largest global tradable asset, gold’s surge to a massive $21.7 trillion valuation has overshadowed this achievement. Investors worry that Bitcoin’s strong correlation with the stock market has diminished the appeal of its “digital gold” narrative. There is also a possibility that the $3.6 billion in net inflows to US spot ETFs over the past two weeks are being driven by delta-neutral strategies. In this scenario, the flows reflect Bitcoin holders moving to listed products or using derivatives for hedging. If so, the direct impact on price would be limited, which is consistent with Bitcoin’s modest 5% gain during this period. To determine whether professional traders are comfortable with Bitcoin around $97,500, it is helpful to examine the BTC options market. The BTC options 25% delta skew metric is currently near its lowest level since Feb. 15, indicating that whales and market makers are assigning higher odds to further upside from here. This marks a sharp reversal from three weeks ago, when put (sell) options traded at a premium. Related: Bitcoin unsure as recession looms, US-China tariff talks kick off Bitcoin derivatives’ resilience favors further BTC price gains Overall, Bitcoin derivatives indicate moderate optimism. Traders generally expect further price gains, but bulls are refraining from using leverage. Some might argue that this creates the ideal conditions for a surprise rally, especially since the retest of $74,500 on April 9 did not significantly affect BTC derivatives. The most important factor influencing Bitcoin’s performance remains the commercial relationship between the US and China. As long as the trade war continues, Bitcoin is likely to continue tracking the S&P 500 movements. While this environment may prevent Bitcoin from reaching a new all-time high in the near term, BTC derivatives are currently leaning slightly in favor of the bulls. This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph. Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/stars-align-for-bitcoin-rally-to-100-k-but-futures-traders-exercise-caution-here-s-why?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
You may also like
Dune Stablecoin Research: The Flow and Demand of a $300 Billion Market
In the dataset, transfers are no longer simply labeled as pure "transaction volume," but are classified as different on-chain activities. This is the difference between "just knowing that $100 trillion has been transferred" and "understanding why it was transferred."
Stripe Annual Letter: New cognitive density is extremely high, especially the 5-level model of "AI + Payments"
Every trend here is affecting everyone's future survival.
Sam Altman's Twenty-Four Hours: The Pentagon said "no" twice, but only one was serious
In Silicon Valley, Altman's sub-12-hour move has a name. It's not called backstabbing, it's called timing.
The US-Iran Conflict Spreads to the Crypto Space: What to Expect in the Market on Monday
The most important industry in the crypto world, only 300 kilometers away from the missile's impact point
Lily Liu, the chair of the Solana Foundation, shouted "Don't waste time on crypto," is the crypto industry really dead?
The interest of the younger generation is shifting from cryptocurrency to the field of artificial intelligence, which coincides with the current phenomenon in the cryptocurrency industry.
The little deer live by the water and grass
Mining companies have never been the most devout believers in Bitcoin. Under the pressures of halving compressing profits, financial reports showing revenue growth without profit increase, and coin prices falling below mining costs, the industry is collectively de-risking.
The world belongs to Chinese people who speak English
The world is vast, and only playing half of it is truly a loss.
Why Stop at 126K? Michael Saylor Breaks Down BTC Stagnation and Retail Absence Truth
Bitcoin is digital capital, and I will spend a thousand hours explaining it to you. Eventually, you will understand, but you will still have to endure a 45% crash.
Virtuals Protocol's inaugural Titan project: ROBO aims to give a wallet to a robot
This is a key step in Virtuals expanding the Agent Economy into the Embodied AI and Robotics field.
Stablecoin Latest Report: Actual Distribution and Circulation Much More Notable Than Supply
The Truth about Stablecoin Circulation Speed, Concentration, and Structure After Doubling the Supply
Paradigm's New Arithmetic: When Crypto Can't Hold 12.7 Billion, AI Becomes the Answer
It took Paradigm three years to emerge from the ruins of FTX.
Wintermute Founder: In the Lost Cryptocurrency Market, What Can We Still Do?
This is more like a manifesto, discussing "the very reason we are here."
$1.3 Billion Debt: BitDeer Faces Tough Battle
Wu Jihan is waiting for AI's money to catch up with the speed of debt.
Anthropic's IPO Gamble: At the Most Unlikely Moment, It Chose to Say No
In the AI Era, what is the most valuable thing?
Paradigm's Math Problem: $12.7 Billion, Too Big for a Single Crypto Fund
Emerging from the ruins of FTX, Paradigm took three years
Ethereum Unveils Scaling Roadmap, What's Different This Time?
Short-term improvements to execution efficiency through the Gas mechanism optimization and block validation parallelization, and long-term scalability through ZK-EVM and blobs data architecture.
Anthropic Ban Wave, OpenAI $100 Billion Funding Controversy: What Is the Overseas Crypto Community Talking About Today?
What Have Foreigners Been Most Interested in Over the Last 24 Hours?
Morning News | OpenAI receives $110 billion investment; Solana launches Solana Payments; M0, MoonPay, and PayPal jointly launch PYUSDx
Overview of Important Market Events on February 27
Dune Stablecoin Research: The Flow and Demand of a $300 Billion Market
In the dataset, transfers are no longer simply labeled as pure "transaction volume," but are classified as different on-chain activities. This is the difference between "just knowing that $100 trillion has been transferred" and "understanding why it was transferred."
Stripe Annual Letter: New cognitive density is extremely high, especially the 5-level model of "AI + Payments"
Every trend here is affecting everyone's future survival.
Sam Altman's Twenty-Four Hours: The Pentagon said "no" twice, but only one was serious
In Silicon Valley, Altman's sub-12-hour move has a name. It's not called backstabbing, it's called timing.
The US-Iran Conflict Spreads to the Crypto Space: What to Expect in the Market on Monday
The most important industry in the crypto world, only 300 kilometers away from the missile's impact point
Lily Liu, the chair of the Solana Foundation, shouted "Don't waste time on crypto," is the crypto industry really dead?
The interest of the younger generation is shifting from cryptocurrency to the field of artificial intelligence, which coincides with the current phenomenon in the cryptocurrency industry.
The little deer live by the water and grass
Mining companies have never been the most devout believers in Bitcoin. Under the pressures of halving compressing profits, financial reports showing revenue growth without profit increase, and coin prices falling below mining costs, the industry is collectively de-risking.
App