Solana at $150: A short-term risk, but why you should consider HODLing SOL

By: ambcrypto|2025/05/03 17:15:01
0
Share
copy
Solana is flexing serious muscle this month, surging 15% and stealing the spotlight as a standout performer. SOL’s march toward $200 is looking less like speculation and more like structural progression . Solana’s [SOL] dry run to $95 on the 8th of April, following a sharp 64% quarterly drawdown, was a textbook case of aggressive “dip-buying”. In other words, an early signal that buyers were ready to step in at value zones. Fast forward to mid-Q2, and SOL has clawed its way back to price levels seen in early March, showing the market is now in a net profit state. Despite this rebound, a full-scale pullback has yet to materialize. Instead, price remains range-bound below the $150 overhead supply wall. Typically, this kind of sideways action, especially when profits are on the table, screams conviction. Market participants appear more inclined toward capturing future upside than realizing short-term gains. In this context, Solana’s behavioral resilience may be laying the foundation for a $200 breakout to emerge as the new base case. Resilience in the face of resistance Solana’s 15% weekly rally might hit a speed bump in the coming days. Why? First, SOL is charging toward the $150 supply wall, a critical liquidity resistance area. Typically, when assets get close to a ceiling, portfolio reshuffles and profit-taking are par for the course. And the data backs it up. SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) remains elevated above 1 , indicating that market participants are realizing profits. Concurrently, NRPL (Net Realized Profit and Loss) turned green following SOL’s breakout above the $130 resistance level on the 12th of April, showing that the market is now, on average, in the money. Source: Glassnode Meanwhile, Pump.fun is back in the mix, sending another 105,233 SOL ($591 million at an average price of $185) to Kraken. Of this, 264,373 SOL has already been executed in spot sales around the $158 level, netting approximately $41.64 million in USDC. Yet, despite elevated realized profits and systematic offloading by a major entity , Solana’s price structure remains stable. This implies underlying bid support and suggests ongoing distribution is being absorbed efficiently. Hence, a signal of structural bullishness. How market psychology is powering Solana’s long-term case Despite the short-term dip, Solana’s long-term potential makes its current valuation an attractive dip-buying opportunity. Market participants are validating this outlook. On the 2nd of May, three newly created wallets withdrew 145,000 SOL for $21.8 million from Kraken, with an average entry price around $150. This suggests the influx of fresh capital into the network, signaling potential FOMO-driven accumulation. Interestingly, long-term holders are also active in this phase. Solana’s HODLer Net Position Change has shifted to positive territory following a major distribution phase during SOL’s 65% quarterly correction to $95. Source: Glassnode The positive shift in HODLer Net Position Change, paired with accumulation near the $150 level, reflects growing conviction among long-term holders. It’s a sign the market sees current prices not as a ceiling—but a launchpad. This behavior acts as a psychological springboard, reinforcing the $200 breakout as a base case scenario. Put simply, the recent dip looks less like a reversal and more like a strategic entry point for investors chasing long-term alpha. Share Share Tweet

You may also like

Dune Stablecoin Research: The Flow and Demand of a $300 Billion Market

In the dataset, transfers are no longer simply labeled as pure "transaction volume," but are classified as different on-chain activities. This is the difference between "just knowing that $100 trillion has been transferred" and "understanding why it was transferred."

Stripe Annual Letter: New cognitive density is extremely high, especially the 5-level model of "AI + Payments"

Every trend here is affecting everyone's future survival.

Sam Altman's Twenty-Four Hours: The Pentagon said "no" twice, but only one was serious

In Silicon Valley, Altman's sub-12-hour move has a name. It's not called backstabbing, it's called timing.

The US-Iran Conflict Spreads to the Crypto Space: What to Expect in the Market on Monday

The most important industry in the crypto world, only 300 kilometers away from the missile's impact point

Lily Liu, the chair of the Solana Foundation, shouted "Don't waste time on crypto," is the crypto industry really dead?

The interest of the younger generation is shifting from cryptocurrency to the field of artificial intelligence, which coincides with the current phenomenon in the cryptocurrency industry.

The little deer live by the water and grass

Mining companies have never been the most devout believers in Bitcoin. Under the pressures of halving compressing profits, financial reports showing revenue growth without profit increase, and coin prices falling below mining costs, the industry is collectively de-risking.

Popular coins

Latest Crypto News

Read more