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SignalPlus Macro Analysis: The Tariff-Torn M2 Narrative and the Return of TradFi-Style FOMO
原文标题：《SignalPlus 宏观分析特别版：He Said, Xi Said…》
原文来源：SignalPlus 華語
美国持续与全球开展关税边缘政策的对抗，Trump 近日声称已进行「超过 200 场」贸易谈判，并表示他最近与中国国家主席习近平进行了通话。然而，这一说法很快遭到中国驻华盛顿大使馆的驳斥，声明指出「中美之间并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判」，并强调「美方应停止制造混淆」。
政治分析人士认为，低级别的沟通可能持续进行，但能否达成任何实质性的协议令人怀疑，目前生效中的贸易禁运已拖累了上半年的经济增长，我们不认为中美贸易谈判在可预见的未来会有任何清晰的解决方案。
市场在缺乏进一步利空消息的情况下得以回稳，美股上周创下年内第二大单周涨幅，多数非美元宏观资产也收复了自「解放日」以来的大部分跌幅。
波动率和信贷利差也出现了类似的复苏，昂贵的尾部对冲陆续到期，最坏的情境（至少目前）尚未发生。我们预期，风险市场可能会先进一步走高至「不合逻辑」的水平，今年下半年才会重新步入更明显的熊市阶段。
随著各国纷纷切断彼此供应链上的依赖，贸易关系的破裂以及对经济增长的损害是确实存在的。如果未来几年美国经常帐赤字情况开始逆转，全球投资组合也将重新评估对美元的依赖。
有趣的是，从历史模型推算，目前信贷利差定价所隐含的美国经济衰退可能性仅有 20% 左右，另一方面，小型股的疲弱表现则反映出约 70% 的衰退可能性，而美国国债与 SPX 指数则基本上呈现「五五波」，不同资产给出了不同的答案。
目前来看，市场正逐渐恢复正常，就连美国国债也迎来了近两年来最大规模的四周资金流入，投资者纷纷在经济即将放缓前与现时通胀压力持续降温之际大举买入债券。
如我们长期读者所熟知的，对于美债即将崩盘的担忧总是被大幅夸大，事实上，私部门持有的美债规模在 2024 年持续增加，抵消了官方（中央银行）减持的影响，非美国投资者持有的水位也依然维持在相对高档。
最新公布的每周官方活动数据显示，目前尚未出现任何大规模抛售美债的情况，即便市场有所担忧，日本的累计购债规模也依然保持稳定。
另一方面，随著市场风险情绪回升，上周二黄金市场出现了逾 14 年来最大单日资金流出，交易商报告指出当日净卖出超过 13 亿美元。
同样地，美元指数在本届美国总统上任的首 100 天表现疲弱，迎来史上最差开局，兑主要货币跌幅超过 10%，表现甚至比 1973 年 Bretton Woods 体系瓦解时还要糟糕。
更雪上加霜的是，即便油价达到每桶 80 美元，沙特阿拉伯的财政状况也可能从资金贷款方恶化为借款方，使得这个全球最大过剩资本来源之一消失，引发市场对于未来美国庞大债务规模如何持续获得资金支持的疑虑。
Bitcoin 成为美元疲弱行情下的主要受益者，4 月份的表现超越了 Nasdaq 指数与黄金，迎来自 Trump 当选后最佳单周表现之一。
BTC 作为另类避险资产的叙事持续增长，从其主导地位自 2023 年以来稳步上升的趋势可见一斑，这反映的是投资叙事的彻底转变，而非单纯由市场 FOMO 情绪驱动的现象。
随着市场风险情绪改善，ETF 资金流入也出现复苏，连续 6 个交易日录得净流入，从第一季度的低迷中恢复过来，价格也突破了 88 k 附近的下行趋势线。
近期市场上有一个颇为流行的论述，认为 BTC 即将因 M2 货币供应量增加的延迟反应而上涨。尽管我们并不完全认同此观点，因为数据背后存在更多复杂细节，但我们仍对 BTC 的中期走势持乐观态度，预计为因应关税导致的经济放缓，货币和财政政策将有所放松。
与此同时，我们也预期 FOMO 行为有所回归，但不一定会出现在 DeFi 原生领域，近期 Cantor、SoftBank 与 Tether 合作的 Bitcoin SPAC 已经吸引到大量 TradFi 投资者的关注。
需特别留意，FOMO 情绪更可能由 TradFi 市场回流到加密货币市场，而非相反。随著与加密货币挂钩的产品在传统交易平台上日益普及，未来的行情热潮可能由主流投资者行为所推动。
展望本周，美国与欧洲将公布最新 GDP 数据，欧洲地区也将有其他通胀指标出炉，美国非农就业报告则预定于周五发布。日本央行预计将于周四会议上维持利率在 0.5% 不变，而美联储则已进入 5 月 7 日会议前的缄默期。
在股市方面，本周有超过一半的 Mag-7 成员（Microsoft、Meta、Amazon、Apple）将公布财报，而企业 EPS 预测已大幅下修。
预计本周市场将把焦点转向经济数据和企业财报，忽略与贸易相关的噪音。祝各位交易顺利！
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