Focus of the Feds June meeting minutes: The threshold for rate cuts has dropped
Odaily News The key points of the Feds June meeting minutes are as follows:
1. How much hope is there for a rate cut in July: How much support will Trump 1.0 appointees Waller and Bowman get? Both said they would consider cutting interest rates at the July meeting and that the impact of tariffs on prices may be short-lived.
2. The wait-and-see period ends in the summer, and a rate cut may be made in September: The minutes may suggest that the trajectory of interest rates will depend on data released in June, July, and August and that the wait-and-see period may end in the late summer. The minutes may indicate that the committee expects to have the data needed to make a rate cut decision by the end of the summer. If the situation is as expected, this will strengthen the markets expectations for a rate cut in September.
3. The threshold for rate cuts is falling: The Feds June meeting minutes may read more dovishly. Powell tended to use neutral language at the June meeting, but the minutes may better reflect what Powell did not explicitly say: the threshold for rate cuts is falling.
4. Clues to internal disagreement: In June, 7 of the 19 officials thought no rate cuts were needed this year, 2 expected one, 8 expected two, and 2 expected three. Analysts will be looking for clues to the cause of this disagreement. What supports the view of 7 Fed officials that there will be no rate cuts at all in 2025?
5. Dual-mission concerns: The Fed’s previous economic forecasts show that the pace of price increases will accelerate for the rest of this year, but in 2026, even though interest rates are expected to fall, the pace of price increases will fall again. Also pay attention to whether there are serious concerns about the strength of the job market. (Jinshi)
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