Fed Chair Candidate List Upended: Hassett Out, Wash Is Top Contender

BlockBeats News, January 19th, Kevin Hassett, White House Economic Advisor and Chairman of the National Economic Council, recently publicly stated that Trump is more likely to want him to continue in his current White House position, a statement that the market has interpreted as his basic withdrawal from the race for the next Fed chair.

After Trump publicly released the above signal, the prediction market quickly adjusted its expectations. Data from Kalshi and Polymarket show that the probability of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh becoming the next Fed chair has soared to about 60%, significantly leading; Hassett's odds have fallen to around 15%-16%, and current Governor Christopher Waller is about 13%-14%. Previously, Warsh and Hassett were neck and neck.

Analysts pointed out that Warsh has become the "clear frontrunner" for the first time, but Trump has always been unpredictable in personnel matters, so the final result remains uncertain. Other main candidates currently include Waller and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder.

Meanwhile, a judicial investigation into the renovation project of the Fed headquarters has added variables to the chairman selection and reignited market concerns about the Fed's independence. Treasury Secretary Benson downplayed the impact, stating that the overall market performance is stable and indicating that the Senate is expected to accept Trump's final nominee.

Current Fed Chair Powell's term will end on May 15th. Trump has stated that he will announce his successor within this month, but has not provided a specific timetable yet.