Deng Yu, Wang Hong, John Pardon, and Jacob Tsimerman's Probability of Winning the Fields Medal Exceeds 98%

Polymarket monitoring shows that the probability of Deng Yu, Wang Hong, John Pardon, and Jacob Tsimerman winning the Fields Medal in 2026 has exceeded 98%. The International Congress of Mathematicians (ICM) will be held in Philadelphia, USA, on July 23, 2026, where multiple awards, including the Fields Medal, will be announced. Recently, some netizens analyzed the front-end code of the ICM 2026 official schedule and speculated that the four mentioned above might be the award winners, although the list has not yet been officially confirmed. If Deng Yu and Wang Hong win, they will become the first Chinese mathematicians to receive the Fields Medal.

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