CryptoQuant Analyst: Bitcoin has entered a risk-averse phase, and ETF demand momentum is far below last year's peak

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin has lost its structural upward momentum amid a sharp deterioration in the macro environment, which is an important signal indicating that the market is currently more in a "Risk-off" phase. Until its on-chain "Impulse" indicator returns above the zero axis, every rebound of BTC still lacks confirmation.

He pointed out that the recently released fourth part of "Decision Architecture for Bitcoin" focuses on building a macro framework based on the Dollar Index (DXY), 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, and VIX volatility index. The core idea is that not all macro fluctuations will disrupt on-chain structure, but when macro factors truly enter a "dominant mode," even if on-chain data is positive, the market may temporarily lose upward momentum.

In addition, CryptoQuant has added a U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF dashboard this week, covering data such as weekly net inflows, cumulative flow, 30-day ETF Flow Momentum, changes in demand over the past four weeks, and fund distribution among various ETFs. Currently, the 30-day ETF momentum is only $362.8 million, while this indicator reached a peak of $13.21 billion in December 2024 and fell to a low of -$5.36 billion in November 2025.

Adler emphasized that the Coinbase Premium Index remains an important indicator for observing U.S. spot demand: when this index consistently stays above zero, it indicates that U.S. buying is still supporting the market; if it turns negative, even if BTC rises, its movement may lack genuine support from U.S. demand.