Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom Signals Similar to Past Patterns

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at about 50% lower than its all-time high, and analyses suggest that the ongoing bear market, which has lasted for over 40 weeks, resembles previous 'bottom' phases. One analyst noted that four long-term indicators are converging simultaneously, indicating that this bear market is closer to the 'later stage' than the initial phase. Currently, Bitcoin is moving near the lower boundary of the long-term 'power low' model, which has historically shown about 96% accuracy, but it has not decisively broken below this boundary yet. Compared to the Nasdaq, Bitcoin has essentially remained stagnant since 2017, with the current figure recorded at around 72, which is a historical high. The analyst pointed out that after similar signals emerged in 2022, Bitcoin dropped an additional 30%. The 'realized price' of Bitcoin is suggested to be around $53,000, and in past cycles, there have been instances where prices briefly dipped below this level before further declines occurred. The current bear market has absorbed more than two-thirds of the past average, with some models predicting a bottom formation around November. While the market is still burdened by liquidity tightening, Bitcoin tends to reflect this earlier than other risk assets.

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